The corn has tasseled, and the big story in farming right now is keeping those irrigation pivots running—and hoping for good weather until harvest.
At the beginning of the growing season, there were rampant and warranted concerns that this summer would bring another record-breaking drought. Especially worrisome was how farmers would be able to cope with the Little Blue Natural Resource District’s new restrictions on groundwater allocations.
But in his grace, this summer has instead delivered a season of timely rains with only a slight threat of hail so far.
And now, more good news: this fall’s corn yields in Clay County are forecast to be at or above-average.
This prediction, made by the University of Nebraska- Lincoln’s Hybrid-Maize crop model, should hold true as long as damaging hailstorms and early fall frosts hold off.
Clay Center’s 35,000 acres of irrigated corn and 27,000 acres of dryland corn are among 43 locations spread across 10 states upon which this forecasting crop model is being applied.
The UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model uses this growing season’s weather data with each site’s crop development stage on July 15 to simulate fall yield potential, barring devastating weather events.
Based on more than 20 years of data, Clay Center’s irrigated corn yield averages 258 bushels per acre. At this point in the season, the UNL crop model predicts a 51-percent chance that the 2025 harvest will be above 280 bushels per acre and only a 12-percent risk of coming in below 252 bushels per acre.
Likewise, while dryland corn yields at Clay Center average 188 bushels per acre, the UNL crop model is forecasting a 30-percent possibility that the 2025 harvest will come in above 233 bushels per acre and only a 16-percent risk of being below 187 bushels per acre.
The goal is that UNL’s corn yield forecasts will benefit not only growers but the agricultural industry on crop management, logistics, and marketing decisions. Examples of industry sectors with a vested interest in crop yield predictions are feedlots, ethanol plants, grain elevators, insurance agencies, and railway and over-the-road transportation companies.
Indirectly, Clay County’s agricultural industry also affects County and public school funding, community economy, and local church support. Whether or not they farm, the well-being of all Clay County residents hinge on an adequate fall harvest.
COURTESY OF UNL | CLAY COUNTY NEWS
Locations of forecasted sites during the 2025 crop growing season. The Yield Forecasting Center (YFC) will provide real- time information on corn phenology and forecasts of corn yield potential every three weeks, starting in mid-July, to aid growers and ag industry in making management, logistics and marketing decisions through the 2025 season.
